Djou leads Hawaii congressional race: Could Djou score a rare Republican upset

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Hawaii Poll: Djou leads Democratic rivals in congressional race Poll shows concerns over Hanabusa, Case splitting vote are real Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou has the advantage in the special election for Congress, a new Hawai'i Poll has found, giving Republicans the best opportunity in two decades to claim the urban Honolulu district.Djou leads with 36 percent, former congressman Ed Case is chasing at 28 percent, and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa is trailing with 22 percent. Thirteen percent were undecided. The poll, taken for The Advertiser and Hawai'i News Now, confirms fears among Democrats that Case and Hanabusa could split the Democratic vote in the winner-take-all election and help Djou score a rare Republican upset. The poll was conducted by Ward Research from April 23 through April 28 among 349 voters who said they were likely to mail back their ballots in the May 22 election. The margin of error was 5.2 percentage points. "Right now, for me, it's about fiscal responsibility," said Walter Yuen, a retired flight attendant who lives in Hawai'i Kai and is leaning toward Djou. Yuen believes federal and state lawmakers rely too much on tax increases to maintain governments that have grown too large. "We've got to learn how to control our spending," he said. "If I have to do it, they should have to do it." Wendy Fujimoto, a paralegal who lives in Salt Lake, said she doubts the federal economic stimulus package will improve the economy and thinks the answer is less spending and limited government. Fujimoto is concerned about changes to a Native Hawaiian federal recognition bill that would give Hawaiians sovereign authority prior to negotiations with the state and federal governments. She also believes the Jones Act, the federal maritime law that protects the domestic shipping industry, has led to higher consumer costs. Fujimoto likes Case, and believes Djou may be better at identifying problems than solving them, but she is leaning toward Djou. "I want things to change and I think Charles would bring that," she said. Warren Abe, a salesman who lives in 'Āiea and is looking for work, has misgivings about the new federal health care reform law and some of President Obama's other policies. Abe said he believes Case, a moderate, would be more likely than the liberal Hanabusa to challenge the president when necessary. "I think he'll bring up the right questions, while Hanabusa will be in his corner 100 percent," he said. Like many in Hawai'i who usually vote for Democrats, Susan Ikeda, who works at an elementary school and lives in Salt Lake, said she is a little nervous about the potential for Case and Hanabusa to split the vote and reward Republicans. Ikeda believes Hanabusa has shown leadership as Senate president and is the stronger Democrat. "I think she's more likely to stand up and say what she thinks," she said. The Hawai'i Poll found that concerns about splitting the Democratic vote are real. Among voters who said they usually choose Democrats, Case took 35 percent and Hanabusa had 34 percent. Winner takes all Rebecca Ward, the president of Ward Research, said the winner-take-all format of the special election benefits Djou. "Case and Hanabusa are clearly splitting the Democratic vote," she said. Djou said he believes his message of lower taxes, limited government and fiscal responsibility is resonating. "I think people are disappointed in the direction that Congress is taking our nation," said Djou, who, unlike Case and Hanabusa, lives in the district and mailed his ballot yesterday. The national interest in the special election, he believes, has helped drive local attention. "The eyes and ears of the American people are on this race," he said. "This is a major, historic election. This is a national statement. The statement that, even here in Hawai'i, the people are concerned that Congress is spending too much money on programs that don't work with no plan to pay it back. "And that needs to change." Case said the poll shows the campaign is between him and Djou. "People are going to choose change. They are not going to choose the status quo of control politics," he said of Hanabusa, who has been endorsed by many establishment Democrats and labor leaders. "The only question remaining is whose brand of change?" Case said he will appeal to wavering Democrats and independents who might be leaning toward Djou that he is the better brand for Hawai'i. He described Djou as "a pawn of the radical right bent solely on embarrassing President Obama in his hometown and advancing an extreme agenda in Washington." Case said Hanabusa voters have to ask themselves a hard question: "Do they believe that Ed Case or Charles Djou can best represent them in Congress? Because that is their choice." Hanabusa said she senses the campaign is closer than the poll suggests. She believes, like Case, that Djou may be hitting a ceiling among Republicans and independents, and has sought to distinguish herself from Case among the Democrats who make up most of the district's voters. The Hanabusa campaign released a television advertisement on Friday critical of Case for backing an extension of President Bush-era tax breaks on capital gains and dividends. "We're distinguishing ourselves with people, I think, looking at us and feeling that we probably reflect their values a lot closer," Hanabusa said. Hanabusa also believes she has a superior grassroots field operation — aided by her supporters in organized labor and allies of U.S. Sen. Daniel K. Inouye, the state's leading Democrat — to turn out the vote. "People are beginning, more and more, to identify with our campaign," she said. 'Temporary' win National Democrats, still stinging from U.S. Sen. Scott Brown's Republican victory in traditionally Democratic Massachusetts in January, do not want another embarrassment in a blue state. While many local Democrats believe a Djou victory would be only temporary — Case or Hanabusa will have another chance to take the seat in the November general election — national Democrats have warned about the negative message of a loss in Obama's hometown district. National Democrats have considered taking sides between Case and Hanabusa, but have instead been financing campaign ads to weaken Djou. "What this shows is that voters in this district clearly prefer a Democrat," said Andy Stone, western regional press secretary for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. "Our focus continues to be making sure voters know about Charles Djou's record of support for corporate special interests over the needs of families in Hawai'i and ensuring Democrats send in their special election ballots." Since statehood, only two Republicans — the late U.S. Sen. Hiram Fong and former U.S. Rep. Pat Saiki — have represented Hawai'i in Washington, D.C. Republicans last held a congressional seat in 1990, when Saiki stepped down from urban Honolulu's 1st Congressional District for a failed campaign for the U.S. Senate. National Republicans have not yet matched Democrats with campaign ads but are helping with fund raising. The Republican National Committee moved $90,400 in March to the Hawai'i Republican Party, which used the money to help pay for a week of Djou's television ads. U.S. Rep. Pete Sessions, R-Texas, the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, asked Republican donors last week to raise $100,000 by Friday for Djou and a Republican candidate in a special election this month in Pennsylvania. Djou also raised more than $115,000 in one burst surrounding an appearance on conservative Sean Hannity's cable television show on Fox News. While many public-sector labor unions have contacted their members in the Islands on behalf of Hanabusa, national conservative groups, such as Liberty First, a political action committee that has grown out of the tea party movement, and the National Rifle Association have done outreach for Djou. Djou's campaign had more cash on hand than Case and Hanabusa through March — although Hanabusa had raised more money overall — and analysts believe he had a strong month of fund raising, judging from his recent media buys. Dan Boylan, a University of Hawai'i-West O'ahu history professor and political analyst, said a Djou victory would likely lead to tremendous pressure from national Democrats for the party to unite behind a single candidate before the September primary and avoid a drawn-out fight that could further benefit the GOP in November. "They are going to have some crowing rights if Djou wins," Boylan said of Republicans, "because Massachusetts and Hawai'i are two of the most liberal states in the country. "They are going to make a lot of hay out of this." Reach Derrick DePledge at ddepledge@honoluluadvertiser.com.

Hawaii Race War: How about American?

WE are all American I think?

Asian-American Democratic take offense at DCCC Hawaii move

Asian-American Democrats are criticizing the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for favoring a white former congressman from Hawaii over the Asian-American State Senate President in a hotly contested special election to represent a majority-minority Hawaii district.

“The DCCC should focus the party on uniting Democrats and keeping this seat blue rather than dividing us and helping us defeat ourselves. It is unseemly for party officials to step into a special election with more than one Democrat, particularly in a district where 58 percent of the population is Asian Pacific American," says the Asian American Action Fund executive director Gautam Dutta in a statement, provided to POLITICO, that's likely to be the first shot in a campaign to resist DCCC's efforts.

"Imagine the disgruntled reaction were the DCCC to step into a contested special election in a predominantly African-American or Latino district," Dutta pointedly added.

Viewing Case as the stronger candidate, the DCCC is reportedly quietly siding with former Rep. Ed Case over state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa in a nonpartisan election that also features a strong Republican candidate. But Hanabusa is also the more liberal politician, and the race is drawing comparisons from some on the left to the upstate New York congressional election that divided the Republican Party last year, and the issue of race adds another explosive element to the mix. Case, whose wife is Asian-American, has always been popular among Asian-American constituents, but the increasingly organized national Asian-American political class has long felt slighted by Democrats.

“We believe [Hanabusa] is an outstanding candidate who has already broken racial barriers, just like President Obama, by becoming the first Asian Pacific American female to ever preside over a legislative body in the United States. Sen. Hanabusa has consistently upheld Democratic ideals which are in line with Hawaii values. Hawaii voters value candidates like Hanabusa who keep their local roots strong, their ear to the concerns of Hawaii voters and their campaigns homegrown. They do not appreciate interference from Washington D.C. AAA-Fund has chapters, board members and supporters from across the country, including in Hawaii," said Dutta. "Asian Pacific American votes cannot be taken for granted, and the DCCC's actions risk alienating this critical bloc of voters and donors."

Another prominent Asian-American operative said Asian-American Democrats see the move as "beyond an affront" and that there's an effort to organize a boycott of the DCCC by Asian-American donors.

What is an Asian Pacific American?

Also Running in this Race is an Hawaii Chinese Republican Charles K. Djou

In Barack Obama's maybe hometown: The Democratic turf battle, "stay off my turf"

The Hawaiian word kuleana roughly translates to turf, as in, "stay off my turf!"

Gangs fight over turf, and so do politicians. It turns out that an internecine Democratic turf battle may just help elect the first Republican to the U.S. Congress from Hawaii in two decades.

The last Republican to hold the seat was former school teacher Pat Saiki, who left the House in 1990 and who now chairs the campaign of the Republican who is trying to change that trend, Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou. He may be sitting in a good spot in a year Republicans hope is good enough to make them competitive -- even in the Aloha State.

The coming special election for Hawaii's 1st Congressional District pits two Democrats -- former Rep. Ed Case (whose cousin is AOL founder Steve Case) and state Senate President Colleen Hanabusa -- against the GOP's Djou. What is more, it is winner takes all. There is no primary and no runoff election; whoever has the most votes on May 22 wins.

Further complicating matters for Democrats is that, for internal political reasons, party leaders cannot rally around either of the candidates. House leaders would reportedly like to support Case, but he angered both of Hawaii's U.S. senators when he "primaried" Sen. Daniel Akaka in 2006 and made an issue out of the fact that both Hawaii senators are over the age of 80. Not coincidentally, they are supporting Hanabusa.

"Ed Case has not been respecting U.S. Senator [Daniel] Inouye's kuleana," says Djou. "That's a concept people within the Beltway don't understand -- and that's why the division in this race is so sharp. Both of them dislike me, but they really hate each other."

Although Democrats cannot settle on a candidate, they have settled on a strategy of attacking the Republican interloper. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) recently released a TV ad blasting Djou for signing Americans for Tax Reform's "Taxpayer's Protection Pledge," saying it "protects tax breaks for companies who send jobs overseas." (ATR fired back, calling the claims "false".) Interestingly, the ad itself has actually stoked the Democratic divide. The ad's narrator says, "Hawaii needs a 'Congressman on our side," and some have speculated this may be a signal being sent from the DCCC that it actually prefers former Congressman Case.

Clearly, Democrats are concerned about Djou, as they should be. It appears that the Republicans are running the best candidate the GOP has fielded in years. Djou, 39, started fundraising for this campaign years ago, and has lined up respected advisers such as Web guru Patrick Ruffini and The Tarrance Group, a respected polling firm. His advantages don't end there. Djou tells me he is the only candidate in the race who actually resides in the 1^st District. Nor are those Democrats exactly political giants: Case previously defeated Hanabusa for the 2^nd congressional seat in a 2002 special election. He then abandoned his seat to run against Akaka in 2006. Hanabusa narrowly lost a congressional primary in 2006 in the 2^nd District.

Honolulu is the capital and largest city in Hawaii, and Djou, who serves on the City Council, is well known and highly qualified. He served as minority floor leader in the Hawaii Legislature, has a military background (he serves in the U.S. Army Reserve), is a law professor (on sabbatical at the University of Hawaii). He also is self-deprecating and easy-going -- always a plus in laid-back Hawaii -- and mainstream in his views. He is a fiscal conservative and a social moderate -- something that might harm him in other states, but which benefits him in Hawaii. In other words, he is a difficult candidate for Democrats to demonize.

Despite having a Republican governor, Hawaii is a deep blue state and the birthplace of President Obama. "I actually went to the same high school as the president," says Djou. "Had I known Maya's older brother would grow up to become president, I may well have asked her out to senior prom."

This will be the first-ever all-mail-in election in the state, with ballots being sent out on April 30 (voters have until May 22 to return them, but Djou expects most people will cast ballots during the first few days).

"The campaign is probably going to reach a fever pitch when the ballots are put in the mail to the voters," Djou tells Politics Daily.

Djou says the race is over "whether or not the people want another insider, or someone who's going to shake up the system. My opponents are running as insiders, and I am not." Djou favors a moratorium on earmarks, is a free trader, would have opposed the stimulus, and would have opposed health care reform. Djou is currently trailing both Democrats in the polls, and the National Republican Congressional Committee has not yet committed to coming to his rescue. But if Republicans can win in Massachusetts, then anything is possible.

"If Republicans win Barack Obama's hometown, it is going to make a profound statement about the 2010 midterm election," Djou says.

How can the Republican Party bosses in Washington resist that story line?
http://www.djou.com

Charles Djou to emerge as the winner would be Great for Hawaii

Colleen Hanabusa and Daniel Inouye chief of staff in Hawaii: The infighting, back·stabbing begins

State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa, a Democrat running in Hawaii’s May 22 special election for a vacant House seat, has brought on a top aide to Sen. Daniel Inouye (D-Hawaii) to help run her campaign.

Jennifer Goto-Sabas, Chief of Staff for US Senator Daniel K. Inouye

Jennifer Goto-Sabas, who serves as Inouye’s chief of staff in Hawaii and had been informally advising the Hanabusa effort, is taking on an expanded role in the campaign for the seat left vacant by the resignation of former Rep. Neil Abercrombie, according to a source familiar with the move. Inouye and fellow Hawaii Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka have both endorsed Hanabusa over former Democratic Rep. Ed Case in the three-way, winner-take-all May contest.

The source said the move was in part intended as a warning shot to the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, which is considering an endorsement for Case. Democrats are worried about a scenario in which Hanabusa and Case split the party vote, paving the way for Republican Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou to emerge the winner in the heavily Democratic seat.

On Tuesday, Van Hollen told POLITICO that the DCCC was not closing the door on making an endorsement in the race.

The move also signals an attempt to stabilize the Hanabusa campaign, which recently came under sharp criticism for an ad touting a vote to cut state legislative salaries. The campaign later pulled the ad from the airwaves after conceding the spot was misleading.

“Jennifer is here to be a steady hand,” said the source.